人工智能行业的标杆之争：英伟达对阵 C3.ai

英伟达 (纳斯达克代码：NVDA) 和 C3.ai (纽交所代码：AI) 代表了人工智能 (AI) 市场增长投资的两条截然不同的途径。英伟达是全球顶级数据中心 GPU 供应商，主要用于处理复杂的人工智能任务，而 C3.ai 则开发人工智能算法，可以优化、加速和自动化大型组织的任务。

但在过去三年里，英伟达的股价上涨了 480%，而 C3 的股价却暴跌了近 50%。英伟达数据中心 GPU 销售的加速增长令投资者眼花缭乱，但 C3 却因销售增长放缓和巨额亏损而失去了光彩。那么，英伟达在可预见的未来是否会继续优于 C3 呢？

市场领导者 vs. 利基市场弱势者

英伟达是全球最大的独立显卡生产商，用于 PC 和服务器。它曾经从游戏 PC 中获得大部分收入，但人工智能市场的快速扩张将其数据中心 GPU подразделение превратило в крупнейший и самый быстрорастущий бизнес. Latest quarter, company received 87% from its revenue from data center chips.

According to JPR, Nvidia controls 88% of a discrete GPU market, and according to TechInsights, it controls 98% of a data center GPU market. Like market dominance will help a company stay a linchpin of a AI market.

2023 fiscal year (which ended January 2023) in Nvidia's sales growth flatlined as the global PC market outgrew its pandemic-driven acceleration. But in fiscal 2024, its revenue rose 126%, as the market demand for the company's AI chips outpaced available supply. Analysts expect Nvidia's sales to grow another 98% in fiscal 2025.

C3.ai is a much smaller software company that plugs its AI algorithms into a company's existing infrastructure. It also provides those algorithms as stand-alone services.

C3.ai faces a lot of competition from data mining services like Palantir, automation platforms like UiPath, and integrated AI tools in big cloud infrastructure platforms like Amazon Web Services (AWS). C3.ai also relies on a single joint venture with energy giant Baker Hughes for about 30% of its annual revenue -- and that crucial deal is set to expire next April.

C3.ai's revenue rose only 6% in fiscal 2023 (which ended April 2023) as the macro headwinds drove many companies to rein in their software spending. Its new consumption-based pricing model, which is aimed at gaining more customers in a tough market, also cannibalized the company's subscription-based fees. But C3.ai's revenue grew 16% in fiscal 2024, and analysts expect an acceleration to 23% growth in fiscal 2025 as the macro environment warms up and it rolls out more generative AI tools.

Based on those estimates, Nvidia doesn't look cheap at 23 times this year's sales. C3.ai looks a bit cheaper at 9 times this year's sales -- but it isn't a screaming bargain yet.

But which company is more profitable?

Nvidia is consistently profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, but C3.ai continues to rack up steep GAAP and non-GAAP losses. C3.ai originally aimed to turn profitable on a non-GAAP basis in fiscal 2024, but it walked back those plans in the first quarter of that year to ramp up its R&D and marketing investments in new generative AI tools.

On a non-GAAP basis, analysts expect Nvidia's EPS to jump 109% in fiscal 2025. However, they expect C3.ai's non-GAAP net loss to widen this year as it ramps up its AI investments.

Nvidia trades at 43 times forward earnings, which seems reasonable relative to its near-term growth rates. Its main competitor, AMD, which is growing at a much slower rate, only has a slightly lower forward multiple of 41.

Lastly, we should note that C3.ai's share count rose more than 20% over the past three years as it subsidized its salaries with a lot of stock-based compensation. Nvidia's share count actually declined 1% during that period as it accelerated stock buybacks.

The better buy: Nvidia

It's easy to see why Nvidia outperformed C3.ai; it's larger, it's growing faster, it's more profitable, and it has a much wider moat. Those strengths should drive its stock higher and help it outperform C3.ai for the foreseeable future. C3.ai isn't down for the count yet, but it needs to narrow its losses, diversify its customer base, and prove its business model is sustainable.